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Sunday, April 3, 2011

Oil and sustainable ICT

As these days oil prices and saving gasoline are hot topics, I want to highlight how all this will affect the sustainability of ICT. And I don't mean only how ICT will impact the Environment, but also the viability of our profession as it is understood today.

It is known from many years that oil is a finite fossil energy. It will take time to get exhausted, but it will take much less to be unaffordable. The peak oil theory stands that the production of petroleum will drop as quick as it grew when the half of the stocks of the Earth are extracted. International organizations such as the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO), the International Energy Agency, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development or several ecologist NGOs don't agree on the exact date: 2008, 2010, 2015, ... Anyway, if it hasn't happened yet, it will be soon.

What are the effects of the peak oil? End of cheap petroleum and gradual price increases. The price forecasts don't agree either: $150 in 2015, $220 next year if riots in North Africa and Asia continue... Even if oil prices fall after Lybia conflict ends (and I wish it is as little bloody as possible), we are bound to suffer rising oil prices without a ceiling in the mid and long term.

The prices of the rest of energy sources will also rise as oil gets more expensive. The fossil ones will follow Hubbert's theory: natural gas, coal, uranium, ... all of them have their own peak approaching. Renewable energies don't have such peak, but they are still expensive. In this case a security mentality should be applied: nobody thinks today that having an antivirus or a firewall is a waste.

How will affect all these to ICT? A lot, as it will impact the Society as a whole, and it will oblige us to make big changes. First of all, we must optimize as much as possible all of our equipments. Anyone will have to buy the most energy efficent devices, which will extremely fit the planned needs to avoid any waste and virtualization will be extent wherever possible. Provisioning will also change: with transport prices becoming unaffordable, buying new equipments will be much more expensive, as replacement of damaged components. This will be a chanllenge for manufacturers and dealers.

Manufacturing new devices will also be more expensive: the diesel used to extract materials from mines, the kerosene to move them from factory to factory and the uranium of nuclear power plants that feed factories (if after Fukushima they remain in place) will cost much more and they will rebound on component prices. A mentality change will be forced and extending the life of equipments as much as possible will be the rule (it is already justified nowadays as manufacturing a new computer expends more energy than the energy consumed during its whole life).

Habits using technology will also change (as a result of a mentality swap or forced by companies management). We will no longer see screens, computers, servers or switches on when they don't perform any useful work. Every useless waste will be cut. In a second phase working services will be questioned and those remaining will be streamlined. For example, what must be stored and what not will be studied in deep detail. Depending on the soar of energy prices, the on-line model will stagger.

Another foreseeable change is the rise of the importance of software quality and efficiency. As energy costs rise, software development will be relatively cheaper and taking profit of scarce and hardly expandable hardware will be a high priority.

In this dark grey picture, ICT will have a key role in reducing energy consumption. All the so called Green IT 2.0 technologies will be essential: telepresence, telecommuting, energy management, eco-design, ... Any technology that allows saving a few drops of gasoline will have their chance.

Our Society faces a gigantic challenge. ICT professionals, as a part of it, must be prepared the sooner the better. But we must also detect the opportunities to help Society transition in the smoothest way to a world with expensive energy, and we already have some tools available.